After only one day of action at the Valencia Test in November, it’s almost impossible to predict where the balance of power will lie in MotoGP™ throughout 2023. Will Ducati continue their domination, can Yamaha give Fabio Quartararo the tools he needs, are Aprilia set to ruffle some feathers again and what sort of improvements will KTM make?
Six-time MotoGP™ title-winning team manager Livio Suppo gave his expert analysis on what to expect from Honda in 2023 earlier this week, stating “there can be no excuses” at the Japanese factory now that they boast an all-star line-up of two World Champions and three MotoGP™ race winners.
When it comes to the four other manufacturers, there are still so many unanswered questions. Nevertheless, ahead of the return to action at the Sepang Test in less than two weeks’ time, we asked the former Ducati, Honda and Suzuki boss for his thoughts on 2023.
He started by pointing out the rapid rise in competitiveness over the past decade, which resulted in no fewer than 14 riders stepping onto the premier class podium in 2022: "I expect a very tight season. We’ve had four World Champions in the last four years – Marc [Marquez], Joan [Mir], Fabio [Quartararo] and Pecco [Bagnaia]. It means the sport is very balanced. It’s not like what we saw a few years ago where Marc was dominating.
"We’ve gone from the ‘Fantastic Four’ of Valentino [Rossi], Casey [Stoner], Jorge [Lorenzo] and Dani [Pedrosa] to probably the fantastic twelve now. There’s nobody that is clearly stronger than the others, except Marc if he can get back to what we saw in 2019. And we still don’t know if that is possible or not."
There’s been so much talk about Ducati’s factory line-up for 2023 and for good reason. Pecco Bagnaia and Enea Bastianini bagged 11 victories from last year’s 20 Grands Prix, with Ducati putting together one of the most competitive packages we’ve seen in recent years. But, although Suppo has his eyes on the Ducati Lenovo Team pairing, he believes we could see a satellite spoiler.
"Ducati has a very strong team. Not only in the factory team but also at Pramac, because I strongly believe that Jorge Martin is a title contender."
"Fabio is Fabio," said Suppo when asked about the 2021 World Champion’s chances. "He proved to be both very fast and very strong mentally because it’s not easy to do what he did in the past two years – being the only one able to be fast on a bike that everyone else complained isn’t good enough. If Yamaha can give him a bit more top speed, then Fabio will absolutely be there."
2022's surprise package came in the form of Aprilia as the Noale factory claimed their first MotoGP™ victory and competed for the title up to the final stretch. Although Suppo says it will be difficult for them to replicate such a season, he does think a key change for Maverick Viñales (Aprilia Racing) could be the thing that finally catapults the talented Spaniard to regular success.
"It won’t be easy for Aprilia to prove that what happened last year wasn’t a fluke. What’s happened with them in the past few years is almost like a miracle. They’ve come from nothing and in such a short time they’ve improved a lot. Aprilia is doing a great job. I have a lot of trust in Manu Cazeaux, who is now crew chief to Maverick [Viñales]. He’s one of the cleverest engineers that I’ve ever seen. He’s very intelligent, empathetic and strong. He’s very good at motivating his riders. I know Maverick really wanted Manu with him when he went to Yamaha but Manu believed in the Suzuki project and stayed there. But their relationship is very, very strong, so I believe Maverick could be the big surprise in 2023."
KTM have been incredibly aggressive over recent years in signing team personnel from across the paddock. 2023 will see them introduce both Enea Bastianini's former crew chief Alberto Giribuola and Jack Miller's crew chief Cristhian Pupulin from Ducati, along with Francesco Guidotti's arrival last year. But their most influential signing is Ducati Corse General Manager Gigi Dall'Igna's former right-hand-man Fabiano Sterlacchini as their new Technical Director in the summer of 2021.
Suppo worked closely with Sterlacchini during his time at the Bologna factory, including Casey Stoner's unforgettable 2007 World Championship victory, and he believes KTM's latest additions look set to push them towards the front of the grid: "KTM have done a lot of things to improve when it comes to hiring people and changing their structure. It’s Fabiano’s second season there and now other Italian engineers have joined the squad.
"I believe that will help Fabiano to improve the bike quicker. They’ve added very experienced people and, importantly, they’re now Fabiano’s people. This means a lot. It’s one thing working with the people you find in the company, sometimes you can be lucky and find people that you like and that share the same ideas, but now he’s signed his own people, people he believes KTM really needs. So, I’m confident they’re about to make a step forward.
"Jack [Miller] is Jack, we know he can be fast. Plus, with Brad Binder, they have one of the strongest riders out there. Then they also have their satellite team, which is now far more organised than before. The change of name isn’t just a marketing tool but from what I understand they will have four factory bikes on track."