ANALYSIS: Who's the favourite for the Spanish Grand Prix?

It's been the Quartararo and Bagnaia show all weekend long but can anyone else get in the mix on Sunday in Jerez?

Our 2021 title rivals, Fabio Quartararo and Francesco Bagnaia, have gone toe-to-toe all weekend long at the Red Bull Spanish Grand Prix. The Ducati Lenovo man has topped three sessions so far this weekend to the Monster Energy Yamaha rider’s one, but who has the superior pace? Fear not, motogp.com has trawled the timesheets to outline the runners and riders to keep an eye on.

A RIVALRY RENEWED

They’ve been the standout riders in every aspect all weekend long, and it looks like that will continue into Sunday. Both Quartararo and Bagnaia have strong pace on race tyres, but the World Champion is the real standout.

Fabio Quartararo, Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP™, Gran Premio Red Bull de España

El Diablo currently holds the lap record around Jerez with a 1:37.770 set on Lap 8 of last year’s race, before arm pump infamously struck. And with the same tyres fit as in 2021, after Michelin Motorsport Manager Piero Taramasso confirmed the hard front in Jerez this year is the same as last year’s medium front, the Frenchman is streaks ahead of the rest.

No fewer than 14 laps below the 1:38 mark whilst having the medium rear race tyre were punched in by the factory Yamaha man across FP3 and FP4 today. He was even below lap record pace with a remarkable 26 laps on his rear tyre in the cooler temperatures of this morning.

FREE VIDEO: QUARTARARO GIVES HIS PRE-RACE THOUGHTS
FREE VIDEO: BAGNAIA TALKS "THE BEST LAP OF MY LIFE"


Bagnaia, meanwhile, has only been able to post six laps under 1:38 with a medium on the rear. He will take comfort from three things, though. First, just like Quartararo did in FP3, Bagnaia was able to be within a tenth of the lap record with 23 laps on the rear. Secondly, in the hotter temperatures of FP4, he was able to match Fabio’s pace for the opening eight or nine laps before his pace dropped off slightly.

Thirdly, and possibly most importantly, he starts from pole position. If he can put that to good use and grab the holeshot then the Italian stands every chance of disrupting the World Champion’s metronomic rhythm and we could have a fierce fight on our hands.

Francesco Bagnaia, Ducati Lenovo Team, Gran Premio Red Bull de España

DON’T DISCOUNT ALEIX

Aprilia’s Aleix Espargaro is riding the crest of a wave at the moment. Confidence has never been higher in the Noale camp and it’s easy to see why. Wherever we have been in 2022, the RS-GP has been competitive. And that fact is unlikely to change on Sunday.

The experienced Spaniard was arguably the most impressive man in FP4 as he set a pair of 1:37.9 laps with 18 and then 19 laps on his medium rear. Add those two to the three 1:37s he posted at the start of FP3 on Saturday morning and it suddenly becomes clear why Quartararo pinpointed Aleix as a serious threat to victory on Sunday. Can Aleix and Aprilia stake a real title claim with a sensational Spanish Grand Prix win?

POTENTIAL OUTSIDERS

There’s a handful of riders to keep an eye starting further back. First up, the factory Suzuki man Joan Mir. The 2020 World Champion has posted three sub-1:38 laps throughout Saturday, including a 1:37.8 with 17-lap-old tyres in FP3. He even outlined on Saturday evening that he feels he has more to come on Sunday, so don’t be surprised to see a signature Suzuki comeback on Sunday.

It’s a similar story to what we have seen throughout 2022 for Maverick Viñales (Aprilia Racing), as his qualifying performance hampers his chances of challenging at the front. He has again showcased a strong pace, matching his teammate with five 1:37s on Saturday and even setting a 1:37.9 in the hotter FP4 with a remarkable 22 laps on the rear tyre. So, as he has outlined himself several times, the start is absolutely vital for the former Yamaha rider.

Finally, there’s a pair of Ducati riders to watch closely. Rookie Marco Bezzecchi has impressed all weekend and, after sneaking through Q1 to end up eighth on the grid, he’s given himself a great chance of a strong result on Sunday. Three 1:37 laps were fired in by the Mooney VR46 rider on Saturday, including hitting lap record pace in FP3 with a 19-lap-old medium rear. The other Ducati to watch is Pramac Racing’s Jorge Martin. Despite not managing to find a lap below 1:38, the Spaniard was half a second shy of Quartararo’s 2021 lap record in FP4 with 27 laps on his rear tyre. He’ll be looking to make amends after a frustrating qualifying.

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