Martin seeks deja-vu in Sepang

Even my appalling maths has worked it out. For the first time this season, Jorge Martin could clinch the MotoGP™ World Championship title at the penultimate round at Sepang on Sunday. It may be a long shot and will probably be finally decided at the last round in Valencia, but history is on the side of the Prima Pramac Ducati rider. The Spaniard won his only World Championship title so far in the penultimate round of the 2018 Moto3™ World Championship at Sepang. His seventh Grand Prix victory of the season was enough to give Martin the title with the Valencia round remaining.

Pecco Bagnaia will know exactly what to expect, because his first World Championship title was clinched at the penultimate round of the Moto2™ World Championship the very same year in Malaysia. Third place behind Luca Marini and Miguel Oliveira was enough for the title, and the Italian moved on to MotoGP™ glory.

It will be a very different dimension on both Saturday and Sunday at Sepang. The goalposts have moved dramatically since the introduction of the Tissot Sprint on a Saturday. Twelve more precious Saturday points have been made available for the last two seasons. It could prove a massive factor after the drama in the Thai rain on Sunday. Bagnaia’s superb ride on the treacherous track brought him those precious 25 points. Marc Marquez’s crash moved Martin back into second place behind Bagnaia, losing only five points, keeping his Championship lead to a defendable 17 points. With another 25 points available for a Grand Prix win, there are 37 points available at the weekend. Martin needs to fly home from Kuala Lumpur with a 38-point advantage to break out the champagne on that flight.

Forgetting the Covid seasons that decimated the MotoGP™ calendar, the last time a rider clinched the MotoGP™ World Championship title at the penultimate round was back in 2012. Jorge Lorenzo’s second place behind the Honda of Casey Stoner at Phillip Island was enough to bring him his second MotoGP™ World Championship title, before Marc Marquez arrived on the scene. A year earlier, it was Stoner’s win at his favourite track in Phillip Island that brought him his second World Championship title, with one round remaining.

The last time a rider captured the World Championship title at the penultimate round in Sepang was a historic day for Valentino Rossi in 2009. Third place behind Stoner and Pedrosa was enough for him to win the last of his seven MotoGP™ World Championship titles. I remember the celebrations around the hotel swimming pool at KL airport that went on long into the night and the next morning. Rossi also won the fourth of those titles in the penultimate round at Phillip Island in 2004.

You did not have to finish on the podium to clinch the title. Just knowing how your Championship challengers were faring was crucial. In 1999, Alex Criville became the first Spanish rider to win the Premier class World Championship title after finishing sixth in the penultimate round in Rio. He knew that Kenny Roberts’s third and Tadayuki Okada’s seventh finishes were not enough to prevent him from making history.

So, which rider clinched that Premier class Championship title earliest in the 75-year history of our sport? Perhaps no great surprise, it is a certain Giacomo Agostini in the middle of that incredible six-in-a-row World Championship titles on the magnificent MV Agustas. In both 1970 and 1971, Ago grabbed the title at the sixth of 11 rounds at Spa Francorchamps in Belgium. He comfortably won the races around the legendary circuit just over halfway through the season. Working out when the World Championship title had actually been won was a lot more complicated in those days. Riders were only able to count so many results in the season to complete their tally at the end. Probably no real problems for Ago at the time, who simply just won all the races.

No problems this time, just more points up for grabs. Seventy-four just waiting for Martin or Bagnaia to gobble at the final two rounds. Keep an eye on the weather in Sepang; it could make all the difference.

Do you know, my old maths master would never have believed I wrote this blog. Perhaps I had a little help!